The Leavers lied: The costs of withdrawing from the European Union were always destined to outweigh the benefits. Alas, the responsible, imaginative, and inclusive political leadership needed to minimize the damage is nowhere in sight.
脫歐派說謊：退出歐盟的代價註定會比帶來的好處多的多。唉，現在正需有擔當、富想像力與包容力的領導人來減輕迫在眉睫的損失。來源：Chris Patten(彭定康), Project Syndicate, 27 DEC 2018, 原文網址
LONDON – Day after day, week after week, most British citizens think that the turmoil over their country’s proposed exit from the European Union cannot get any worse. But, without fail, it does. Turmoil turns into humiliating chaos; a political crisis threatens to become a constitutional crisis.
一日又一日，一週又一週，大部分英國人認為對退出歐盟產生的動盪不會再更糟了。不過結果卻不如人願。這反倒變成足使英國人引以為恥的巨大混亂，一個恐轉變為憲政問題的政治危機。
Meanwhile, the date
of the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU gets closer. It is fewer
than 100 days until the UK leaves, and at the moment there is no deal in
sight that is acceptable to both Parliament in Westminster and the
European Commission and European Council in Brussels.
與此同時，英國脫離歐盟的期限則日益接近。當下已經不足一百日，且至今仍未有英國國會與歐盟執委會與歐盟理事會雙方都可接受的協議。
The problem began
with the 2016 referendum vote to leave. Unfortunately, despite plotting
and planning for this outcome for years, Leavers had no idea what
quitting the EU would actually entail. Their campaign was rife with
delusions and dishonesty. Leaving, they said, would mean a financial
bonanza, which the UK would inject into its National Health Service.
Negotiating a trade deal with the EU after departure would be easy.
Other countries around the world would queue up to make deals with
Britain. All lies.
問題肇因於2016年的脫歐公投表決成功。不幸的是，即使對此結果早已謀畫多年，脫歐派仍對離開歐盟的真正下場一無所知。他們的宣傳造勢充斥著痴心妄想與胡言亂語。照他們說的，脫歐就會發大財，這樣英國就可以把錢用在健保系統。在離開歐盟後跟他談出貿易協定必是易如反掌。其他世界各國會趕忙排隊來跟英國談貿易協定呢。全為一派胡言。
The Brexit talks
themselves, when they finally began, were hampered by the incompetence
of the ministers put in charge. The UK’s negotiators were long on
ideological certainty and short on workable solutions.
終於來臨的脫歐談判，由於負責官員的無能，進展自是一波三折。英國的談判者總舌上空有千言，胸中實無一策。
Moreover, the red
lines that Prime Minister Theresa May laid down at the very beginning
made their work more difficult. We must not only leave the EU, she
argued, but also the single market and the customs union. We could not
accept any jurisdiction by the European Court of Justice. We must be
able to end the freedom of European citizens to come to the UK to staff
our hospitals, pick our crops, fill gaps in our professional services,
and increase our prosperity.
更有甚者，首相梅伊一開始就設下的紅線更讓人綁手綁腳。她說我們不只是要離開歐盟，還包含單一市場與關稅同盟。我們不能再受歐盟法庭的裁決管轄。我們必須終結歐盟人民來我們英國從事醫護工作、農業工作、各項我們不足的專業工作與增進我們英國財富的自由。
One of the central problems to emerge from this mish-mash of nonsense was how to avoid re-establishing a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland if the UK stayed within May’s red lines. Such a border would (as the head of Northern Ireland police noted) jeopardize the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland after three decades of violence.
撇開這些大鍋炒的廢話，一個核心問題乃是如果要滿足梅伊設下的紅線，如何避免重新對北愛爾蘭與愛爾蘭共和國間劃下邊界。照北愛警署署長所談，這樣的邊界將有違1998年的貝爾發斯特協議。而此協議在北愛爾蘭30年來的暴力抗爭後帶來了和平。更有甚者，首相梅伊一開始就設下的紅線更讓人綁手綁腳。她說我們不只是要離開歐盟，還包含單一市場與關稅同盟。我們不能再受歐盟法庭的裁決管轄。我們必須終結歐盟人民來我們英國從事醫護工作、農業工作、各項我們不足的專業工作與增進我們英國財富的自由。
One of the central problems to emerge from this mish-mash of nonsense was how to avoid re-establishing a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland if the UK stayed within May’s red lines. Such a border would (as the head of Northern Ireland police noted) jeopardize the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland after three decades of violence.
Recent negotiations
have stalled on this point, because a successful outcome must square a
circle. Britain has already accepted that Northern Ireland will have to
stay in the customs union until the UK has concluded a long-term trade
deal with the EU. Until then, there will have to be an insurance policy –
a “backstop” – against possible failure. But hard-liners within May’s
Conservative Party, and Democratic Unionist MPs from Northern Ireland,
on whom May depends for her parliamentary majority, will accept only a
backstop with a time limit, which is no real “stop” at all.
近來的談判因此這難如登天的問題而陷入膠著。英國已接受北愛在英國與歐盟間談妥一個長期協定之前仍留在關稅同盟。在此之前，得要有一個保險協議以避免可能出現的失誤。但是身為梅伊在國會靠山的保守黨死硬派與北愛的民主聯盟黨只願意接受一個有時限、沒有辦法真正保險的保險方案。
近來的談判因此這難如登天的問題而陷入膠著。英國已接受北愛在英國與歐盟間談妥一個長期協定之前仍留在關稅同盟。在此之前，得要有一個保險協議以避免可能出現的失誤。但是身為梅伊在國會靠山的保守黨死硬派與北愛的民主聯盟黨只願意接受一個有時限、沒有辦法真正保險的保險方案。
At the root of May’s
difficulties is a simple truth that she and others are unwilling to
accept. It is well-nigh impossible to negotiate an exit deal that is
both in the national interest and acceptable to the right-wing English
nationalists in her party. This became crystal clear during a grim week
for the government earlier this month.
梅伊的真正麻煩則是一個單純、而她們不願接受的事實。那就是談出一個符合國家利益又能滿足黨內右翼民族主義者的脫歐協議幾乎是不可能的。本月稍早政府一週間內的醜惡事態已使此事不證自明。
梅伊的真正麻煩則是一個單純、而她們不願接受的事實。那就是談出一個符合國家利益又能滿足黨內右翼民族主義者的脫歐協議幾乎是不可能的。本月稍早政府一週間內的醜惡事態已使此事不證自明。
After May and her
advisers concluded that the exit deal she had negotiated with the EU
would be defeated in Parliament by a large majority, they suspended the
debate before voting took place. May then announced that she was going
to talk to other EU presidents and prime ministers to get the sort of
reassurances that might satisfy her right-wing critics.
在梅伊與其謀士推斷她已與歐盟談定的協議將在國會以懸殊比例敗陣的情形下，她們在投票前中止討論。梅伊旋即宣佈她將與其他歐盟領袖討論以獲取某種保證以滿足來自右翼的激烈批評。
在梅伊與其謀士推斷她已與歐盟談定的協議將在國會以懸殊比例敗陣的情形下，她們在投票前中止討論。梅伊旋即宣佈她將與其他歐盟領袖討論以獲取某種保證以滿足來自右翼的激烈批評。
Those critics have
operated increasingly like a party within a party. Halfway through May’s
frantic diplomatic safari, they announced that they had gathered enough
support to trigger a vote of no confidence in her leadership of the
Conservative Party. She won the vote with about two-thirds support, but
with her authority badly dented.
這些批評運作的像是來自於一個黨中之黨。正在梅伊風塵僕僕在歐陸尋求支持之際，他們宣佈啟動對梅伊的不信任投票已集結足夠的支持。雖她以三分之二的票數贏得不信任案，然而她在黨內之威信已蕩然無存。
這些批評運作的像是來自於一個黨中之黨。正在梅伊風塵僕僕在歐陸尋求支持之際，他們宣佈啟動對梅伊的不信任投票已集結足夠的支持。雖她以三分之二的票數贏得不信任案，然而她在黨內之威信已蕩然無存。
Capping an awful
week, European ministers made clear that they were not prepared to
reopen the agreement with Britain to renegotiation. They could offer
“best endeavours” and “good will,” but no more.
同樣是那糟糕的一週，歐盟部長們已清楚表明他們沒有打算與英國重起談判。他們能心存善念、盡其所能，除此之外無能為力。
So what happens next? May’s supporters think she is determined; others reckon she is simply obstinate and blind to reason. She has continued to put off any debate on her own proposals. Critics say she is trying to push any vote as close to the exit date as possible, in order to pressure MPs to support her plan. “Back my plan or face the disaster of no deal,” she seems to be saying. “Support me or we’ll jump off the cliff.”
So what happens next? May’s supporters think she is determined; others reckon she is simply obstinate and blind to reason. She has continued to put off any debate on her own proposals. Critics say she is trying to push any vote as close to the exit date as possible, in order to pressure MPs to support her plan. “Back my plan or face the disaster of no deal,” she seems to be saying. “Support me or we’ll jump off the cliff.”
那麼接下來會發生什麼事？梅伊的支持者認為她心意已決。其他人則認定她只是剛愎自負且失去理智。她仍持續推遲任何討論她的脫歐方案的辯論。批評者認為她為了讓國會議員支持她的方案，她有意讓任何投票都盡可能拖延至接近脫歐日期。"支持我的方案，不然就面對沒有協議的脫歐吧！"看起來就像是在說："支持我，不然我們就一起跳下懸崖！"
But pressure is building for Parliament to take control of the process and work through a more acceptable range of options. Is there a majority in favor of May’s deal? Is Parliament totally opposed to crashing out of Europe with no deal? Should we seek a Norway-style relationship with Europe and aim to stay in both the single market and the customs union, at the cost of continuing to accept free movement of workers? Should we try to postpone the date of our EU departure until we have sorted out what exactly we want? Should there be another referendum, passing the final decision back to the people?
But pressure is building for Parliament to take control of the process and work through a more acceptable range of options. Is there a majority in favor of May’s deal? Is Parliament totally opposed to crashing out of Europe with no deal? Should we seek a Norway-style relationship with Europe and aim to stay in both the single market and the customs union, at the cost of continuing to accept free movement of workers? Should we try to postpone the date of our EU departure until we have sorted out what exactly we want? Should there be another referendum, passing the final decision back to the people?
然而針對國會須肩負起脫歐進程主動權與研擬出更多可行選項的壓力與日俱增。有多數人支持梅伊的方案嗎？國會是否反對在完全沒談成任何協議的情形下脫歐呢？是否應比照挪威與歐盟的方案，與在同意人員自由流動的情形下將目標定在仍留在單一市場與關稅同盟？是否應試著推遲我們離開歐盟的時間，直到我們搞清楚我們真的想要什麼？是否應該舉辦另一個公投案，將最終選擇權再度交給人民？
A fog of political uncertainty hangs over Britain after Christmas. Only four things seem clear. First, the Conservative Party will have growing difficulty accommodating its fanatical English nationalist wing. Second, to save the UK from disaster, Parliament will have to get a grip on the process. Third, life outside the EU will, in any case, leave Britain poorer and less influential in the world. And, lastly, whatever the outcome, Brexit will be a divisive issue for years to come.
聖誕節後，蔓延著政治不確定性的迷霧壟罩著整個英國。倒只有四件事一目了然，首先是保守黨內部的英格蘭民族主義派系越來越難妥協。二、為了拯救聯合王國於倒懸之急，國會必須趕快鎮定下來回到正軌。三、離開歐盟再怎樣都只會讓英格蘭衰弱且減少影響力。最後，無論最後結果如何，脫歐在未來數年都會是一個意見極為分歧的議題。A fog of political uncertainty hangs over Britain after Christmas. Only four things seem clear. First, the Conservative Party will have growing difficulty accommodating its fanatical English nationalist wing. Second, to save the UK from disaster, Parliament will have to get a grip on the process. Third, life outside the EU will, in any case, leave Britain poorer and less influential in the world. And, lastly, whatever the outcome, Brexit will be a divisive issue for years to come.
The Brexiteers lied. The costs of leaving the EU were always destined to outweigh the benefits. Alas, the responsible, imaginative, and inclusive political leadership needed to minimize the damage is nowhere in sight.
脫歐派滿嘴謊言。退出歐盟的代價註定會比帶來的好處多的多。唉，現在正需有擔當、富想像力與包容力的領導人來減輕迫在眉睫的損失。
註釋：
entail: 意味著...
bonanza: 發大財
mishmash: 大雜燴
square a circle: 比喻很難的事
well-nigh: 幾乎
hang over: 籠罩
get a grip: 鎮定下來
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