非洲的WTO時刻
If she is chosen to head the World Trade Organization, former Nigerian finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, an experienced development economist, would make a broken institution relevant again. She has the gravitas to build bridges between the US and China, on the one hand, and between the WTO and Africa, on the other.
如果她、前奈及利亞財政部長、也是一個久經歷練的發展經濟學者恩戈齊·伊衞拉能被選為帶領世界貿易組織（WTO）。她將能讓這個破敗的組織重新發揮功能。一方面她有足夠的份量可作為中美之間的橋樑。另一方面，她同樣也可以作為是世貿組織與非洲間的橋樑。
來源：Kingsley Chiedu Moghalu, Project Syndicate, 21 OCT 2020, 原文網址
BOSTON – The selection of the World Trade Organization’s next director-general has entered its final phase, with two candidates left in the running: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a former Nigerian finance and economy minister and a former managing director of the World Bank, and Yoo Myung-hee, South Korea’s trade minister. In view of the WTO’s current challenges, Okonjo-Iweala is the better choice.
世貿組織下一任理事長的角逐已經進入了最後的階段，目前只剩下兩名人選還在競爭：分別是擔任過奈及利亞財政部長與前世界銀行常務副總裁的恩戈齊·伊衞拉，與韓國的貿易部長俞明希。以目前世貿組織面臨的挑戰看來，恩戈齊·伊衞拉會是更好的選擇。
The WTO faces two major crises: an institutional crisis caused by the great-power rivalry between the United States and China, and a crisis of globalization – of which the WTO, as the overseer of global trade rules, is a major symbol.
世貿組織正面臨著兩大挑戰：來自於中美兩強相爭造成的組織性危機，以及全球化的危機-而作為全球交易規則的監督者，世貿組織正是全球化的主要象徵。
Sino-American trade tensions have paralyzed the organization, with the US blocking the appointment of new judges to its appellate body, which rules on trade disputes among member countries. Moreover, the COVID-19 crisis, another source of great-power tension, has prompted many firms to consider reshoring production in order to reduce their reliance on pandemic-hit Chinese suppliers, thus disrupting the global supply chains that are critical to world trade.
作為成員國間貿易糾紛仲裁機制的世貿組織上訴機構，由於美國阻撓其法官之任命，中國與美國的貿易摩擦已經讓世貿組織為之癱瘓。更有甚者，另一個造成強權間緊張的武漢肺炎危機，已經促使許多企業考慮移回在地生產，以減少對於在疫情中受創中國製造商的依賴。這瓦解了對於世界貿易至關重要的跨國供應鍊。
If chosen to head the WTO, Okonjo-Iweala has the leadership credentials to restore relevance to a broken organization. The WTO needs a tested global leader who is well versed in the role of trade in development, rather than a trade bureaucrat who might lack the broader view. With her experience at the World Bank (where the US and China are major players) and as a reformist finance minister in Nigeria, the Harvard and MIT-educated Okonjo-Iweala has a rare combination of political leadership skills and proven technocratic competence.
若能恩戈齊·伊衞拉能被選為領導世貿組織，她具有能使這破敗組織重新發揮功能的領導能力。世貿組織需要一個久經戰陣的全球領袖、她能嫻熟於貿易在促進成員國發展的角色。而不是一個缺乏大局觀的商務官僚。以她在世界銀行的經驗（美中兩國在此都是主要成員）與在奈及利亞身為一個改革派的財政部長，在哈佛與麻省理工畢業的恩戈齊·伊衞拉罕見的同時具有政治手腕與技術實務能力。
The WTO needs a leader who can build consensus, because the organization’s design doesn’t allow for top-down leadership. And Okonjo-Iweala has the gravitas to build bridges between the US and China, on the one hand, and between the WTO and Africa, on the other.
由於世貿組織的根本結構就無從建立起一個由上而下的領導權威，故它亟需一個能建立起成員國間廣泛共識的領導者，而恩戈齊·伊衞拉一方面她有足夠的份量可作為中美之間的橋樑。另一方面，她同樣也可以作為是世貿組織與非洲間的橋樑。
Despite being widely regarded as the world’s next frontier for investment and development, Africa is essentially an onlooker in the world trading system, accounting for a meager 2% of global exports. Although the continent is a growing market for the products of globalization, it does not benefit much from world trade, owing to its limited presence in globalized value chains. Instead, Africa trades mainly in agricultural goods and natural resources, whereas most world trade is in manufacturing and services.
即使已被廣泛認為是全球下一個投資與開發的最前線，只佔有少的可憐的2%全球出口的非洲，本質上在世界貿易系統裡還是個作壁上觀的角色。雖然非洲在全球化中是一個成長的市場，但由於在全球價值鍊上並未擔任太多角色，所以世界貿易並未對非洲帶來多大好處。相反的，非洲的貿易還是以農產品與自然資源為主，而大部分的世界貿易重點在於製造業與服務業。
Africa needs to trade with the world on the same basis that other regions do, but the global trading system is keeping the continent underdeveloped. In particular, industrialized countries levy low tariffs on imports of African raw commodities, but higher ones on finished African goods – higher, in fact, than for similar goods imported from other regions.
非洲需要與其他地方以相同的基礎進行貿易，但是全球的貿易機制持續讓非洲處在難以發展的位置。特別是工業化國家對進口非洲的自然資源徵取相對低的關稅，卻對進口非洲的終端工業製品徵取實質上比其他地區較高的關稅。
Today’s world trade is thus rigged against Africa. To help redress this imbalance, the WTO’s special and differential treatment provisions for least-developed countries should permit African governments to provide temporary tariff protection for infant domestic manufacturers within WTO rules. We could call such necessary and temporary measures “smart protectionism.”
今天世界的貿易因此被操控著對非洲不利。要矯正這樣的失衡情形，世貿組織給低度發展國家的特殊差別待遇應當讓非洲國家政府在世貿組織規範下可以徵收暫時性的關稅以保護孱弱的國內業者。我們可以稱這種必要且暫時的手段為"聰明的保護主義"。
More generally, it is time to make the WTO work for all member countries, not just for the great powers or countries whose global economic success was built on trade protectionism but now seek to “kick away the ladder” for developing economies. This structural rebalancing, which will expand the global sphere of prosperity, is best mediated by a WTO leader who is not from a major trading power.
以更廣泛的角度來說，該是讓世貿組織為其所有成員國服務的時候了，而不是只是服務那些以保護主義佔盡經貿優勢、但現在卻想把開發中國家成長的機會一手扼殺的強權。這樣可將全球財富擴展至更多區域的結構改造，要能完美調和鼎鼐非得是一個非主要貿易強國出身的世貿組織領導者不可。
Furthermore, African countries currently do not use the WTO’s dispute-settlement system, because they are too weak to take on donor countries, whether Western powers or China. So, Chinese products, for example, have been “dumped” in African markets with no consequences. Okonjo-Iweala has the skills to build a consensus on giving Africa a fairer shake in the global trading system.
更進一步來說，由於無法與像是西方國家或中國這樣的捐款大國匹敵，非洲國家現在並未使用世貿組織的爭端解決機制。所以例如中國製造的產品已經像是用倒的一樣大量傾銷至非洲而毫無辦法。恩戈齊·伊衞拉有這個能耐在全球貿易體系中給非洲一個更公平的待遇建立起共識。
Much will also depend on the outcome of the US presidential election on November 3. President Donald Trump believes that China has gamed global trade to the detriment of US national interests, while China thinks America has rejected the WTO’s rules-based regime. Resolving this tension will require both powers to find the political will to compromise. It will also require a global development leader such as Okonjo-Iweala, who has served on international development commissions with current and former heads of government, to facilitate a rapprochement. But regardless of who wins on November 3, the COVID-19 pandemic will inexorably weaken globalization as the US and other countries seek to shorten and localize supply chains.
許多事情也端視於11/3的美國總統大選結果而定。美國總統川普相信中國操弄著世界貿易對美國的國家利益有害，而中國認定美國不願按照世貿組織的遊戲規則辦事。要解決兩強間的衝突將需要雙方在政治上找到妥協之處。這同時也需要有一個像是恩戈齊·伊衞拉的全球發展性的領導者、有與現任或前任國際政要一同在國際發展相關委員會裡共事的經驗，才有可能協調出解決方案。但無論11/3誰贏得美國總統大選，由於武漢肺炎的影響，美國與其他國家尋求將供應鍊縮短或回歸在地生產的動作將有去無回的削弱全球化的力量。
Meanwhile, the importance of world trade to human development will again become apparent when billions of doses of COVID-19 vaccines become available, most likely sometime in 2021. As chair of the board of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Okonjo-Iweala has played an important leadership role in negotiations to make vaccines widely available in developing countries.
與此同時，當數以十億計的武漢肺炎疫苗在2021年的某個時刻問世時，世界貿易對人類發展的重要性將再度顯而易見。身為全球疫苗免疫聯盟董事會的一員，恩戈齊·伊衞拉在讓疫苗廣泛推展到開發中國家能扮演一個重要的領導角色。
The WTO’s predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, was originally conceived as part of the post-World War II Bretton Woods system, but weak domestic political support in the US delayed its establishment. The International Monetary Fund has been headed since its founding by Europeans, and the World Bank by Americans. This realpolitik blocked Okonjo-Iweala’s bid to lead the World Bank nearly a decade ago.
It is past time to eliminate such a spoils system, and for the developing world finally to have its chance. And in Okonjo-Iweala, Nigeria and the world have a highly competent candidate to lead the WTO.
世貿組織的前身關稅暨貿易總協定原本是構想為二戰後的不列敦森林體系的一部分，但缺乏美國國內的政治支持推遲了它的建立。國際貨幣基金自從成立以來都是由歐洲人領導，而世界銀行則是美國人把持。在約十年前政治現實讓恩戈齊·伊衞拉無緣領導世界銀行。這樣腐敗的系統早該消失於過去，該是發展中國家的機會來了。而對奈及利亞與全世界而言，恩戈齊·伊衞拉就是個最具領導世貿組織能力的候選人。
註釋：
versed: 老練
WTO’s special and differential treatment: 特殊差別待遇
fair shake: 公平的機會或對待
GAVI: Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, 全球疫苗免疫聯盟
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