(世界新聞)：Will Trump Win a Second Term?

川普能連任嗎？

Logic would suggest that US President Donald Trump can’t make it through a reelection fight: his base is too small, and he’s done next to nothing to expand it. But Trump’s success at solidifying his base could be his salvation in 2020.

以常理推斷美國總統川普根本不可能連任成功：他的基本盤太小，而且他根本沒辦法擴大它。但是川普能成功鞏固他基本盤的步數可能可以在2020救他於累卵中。

來源：Elizabeth Drew, Project Syndicate, 7 MAR 2019, 原文網址

It seems that every time I write about Donald Trump’s presidency, I pronounce it to be in more trouble than ever. This time is no different: he and his presidency are indeed in more trouble than ever. And yet that may not prevent him from winning again in 2020.
我好像每次寫到川普的總統職位，都會寫他又陷入了更多麻煩。這次也不例外：他與他的烏紗帽真的陷入了史無前例的大麻煩。然而這大概還不足以讓他在2020年選戰敗北。

I used to think Trump might not even finish his first term, much less get a second. Now I’m agnostic. For one thing, the US Justice Department’s questionable view that a sitting president can’t be indicted is an inducement to fight to stay in office. Logic would suggest that Trump can’t make it through a reelection fight: his base, an estimated 35-38% of voters, is too small, and he’s done next to nothing to expand it. And while he has governed for the base, he’s failed to fulfill many of his promises. But logic isn’t a trademark of the Trump presidency.

我以前本來覺的川普根本不可能完成他第一個任期，更罔論選到第二任。但我現在沒這麼肯定了。首先，美國司法部不能起訴現任總統這樣的可議觀點足以促使他拼死保住總統權柄。以常理推斷美國總統川普根本不可能連任成功：他的基本盤大約才35%~38%委實太小，而且他根本沒辦法擴大它。而且當他只顧著基本盤時，他就沒辦法做到他的許多承諾。但是川普本來就不是可以用常理推斷的。

Much of Trump’s base is quite satisfied that he’s named two very conservative justices to the Supreme Court, that he’s rolled back regulations on various industries, and that businesses and the wealthy got their tax cut. But business tycoons and the wealthy don’t attend his rallies and cheer his every utterance. Those who do tend to be middle- and lower-middle class voters, to whom he has delivered little other than the satisfaction of yelling at mentions of Democrats and chanting – still – “Lock her up!” even though their target, Trump’s 2016 opponent Hillary Clinton, has said that she won’t run again in 2020.

許多川普的基本盤對他提名兩個非常保守的大法官、在很多行業收回許多監管措施以及對有錢人減稅感到相當滿意。但是這些有錢人並沒有參與他的造勢與同意他每次的發言。那些真的會這麼做的人多半是中、低階層的選民，然而他對這些人所做到的頂多只是滿足對民主黨態度強硬與反覆碎念著"把她關起來"。即使那個要關起來的對象，川普2016年的對手希拉蕊早就說她沒有要選2020了。

Trump is America’s first cult president. His followers delight in his insouciance toward the norms of political behavior, his dismissal of “political correctness,” and his skill at taking down opponents (like mocking the ultra-liberal Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren, who has claimed native-American heritage, with the sobriquet “Pocahontas”). He skates on the edge of incitement and governs on the edge of danger. His disparaging of the press – a fanatic Trump supporter roughed up a BBC cameraman at a recent rally – satisfies his followers’ suspicion of “elites,” while helping him create a fact-free environment in which his thousands of lies define an alternate reality. His invention of a “national emergency” on the US-Mexico border channels his base’s bigotry (plus his own) and supposedly justifies an unprecedented presidential power grab (bipartisan majorities in Congress don’t agree).

川普是美國首位非典型、邪教教主式的總統。她的追隨者喜歡他對常規政治規範的蠻不在乎、完全不鳥所謂的政治正確與他幹掉對手的手段（像是嘲弄極端自由主義的民主黨總統競選者、自稱有原住民血統的伊莉莎白華倫叫寶嘉康蒂（傳奇的印第安女性））。他總在致力煽動人心與把事情處理到危機邊緣。他對新聞媒體的不屑–最近一次的造勢中他的狂熱支持者對一個BBC的攝影師動粗–正可滿足他的支持者對所謂精英階層的疑慮。這讓他可以有一個對真相無視的環境，故可用大量謊言建立一個完全平行的時空。他在美墨邊境築牆案上所發明的"國家緊急狀態"引出了他的基本盤的偏見（還有他自己的），且應該是個史無前例的總統擴權手法（國會兩黨的主流派可都不同意）

Trump’s success at solidifying his base could be his salvation in 2020 if the Democratic nomination process doesn’t produce a strong enough opponent or ends in hostility. And, though Trump appears to have committed several impeachable offenses – accepting “emoluments,” or gifts or income from foreign sources, and obstructing justice, among others – the Democrats are reluctant to be seen as seeking his removal from office, owing to the fierce opposition of Trump’s base. (Fanatic Trump supporters have threatened literal civil war if their hero is impeached or convicted.) Leading Democrats say that they won’t begin impeachment – or a vote in the House to indict a president on specific grounds – without bipartisan support.

如果民主黨沒辦法提名出一個強而有力的角逐者，或是鬥的兩敗俱傷的話，川普在鞏固基本盤的成功可謂是他2020年的救命浮木。此外，即使川普看來確有犯下幾個足以彈劾的指控–其中包含收取來自國外的酬勞或饋贈與干擾司法。然而因為川普基本盤的激烈反對，民主黨看來並不情願以這樣的方式逼他辭去總統（激烈的川普支持者已威脅如果川普被彈劾或定罪甚至可能爆發內戰）。民主黨高層說他們不會發動彈劾，或在沒有兩黨共同支持的情形下於眾院針對某案發動指控總統的投票。

This could be a circular trap: it took some time for any Republicans to accept the possibility that Richard Nixon should be forced to leave office, and Trump’s base is both larger and more institutionalized (through Fox News, among other pillars). By launching a broad investigation of Trump’s private and public actions – the House Judiciary Committee (which has jurisdiction over impeachment) this week sent out 81 demands for more information – congressional Democrats are actually trying to prepare for impeachment. If this doesn’t succeed, the theory goes, they will at least have damaged Trump’s reelection prospects. It would also be useful in case Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s anticipated report does not offer anything helpful. (No one outside that investigation has a clue as to what Mueller has found.)
這大概是四面楚歌了吧：要讓任何共和黨人接受應該強迫尼克森辭職下台的可能性都得花上些時日，而川普的基本盤比他大且組織更為緊密（透過像福斯新聞網的媒體，以及其他支柱）。透過發動對川普的不論公私領域行為的全方面調查，眾議院司法委員會（有權發動彈劾）本週送出81項資料需求–民主黨的國會議員實質上在著手準備彈劾了。如果這樣也不成，理論上這也至少重創了川普的連任前景。就算特別檢察官羅伯穆勒的報告沒有找出什麼名堂也會有效（外界沒有人知道目前穆勒發現了什麼）。

Some of the figures now called before the committee were suggested by Trump’s former consigliere, Michael Cohen, who, in his own recent open testimony before the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, called his former boss a racist, a con man, and a cheat. (Apparently he had also been helpful to the Democrats in closed testimony before the Intelligence Committee.)

現在一些委員會調取的資料是由以前川普的狗頭軍師麥克科恩建議的。他在他最近向眾院監改委員會作證時表示他的前老闆是個種族主義者、騙子、作弊鬼（明顯的他在對情報委員會閉門作證時一定讓民主黨獲益良多）

Although the oversight committee’s Republican members portrayed Cohen as untrustworthy because he’d been convicted of lying to Congress and will soon go to jail, they noticeably didn’t defend Trump. (Cohen had essentially lied to defend Trump, with his encouragement.) He also offered some evidence and anecdotes that could prove highly problematic for Trump – for example, by suggesting that Trump knew in advance about the first WikiLeaks dump of Democratic Party emails and about the infamous meeting in Trump Tower between top Trump aides and Russian operatives. In the end, a poll showed the public believes Cohen over Trump by 50% to 35%.
因為科恩已被指控向國會說謊很快就要去蹲苦窯了，所以雖然監改會的共和黨成員想把科恩塑造成為一個不值得信任的人。但值得注意的是他們並不幫川普辯護（在川普的鼓勵下，科恩本來謊稱要為川普辯護。）。他還提供了一些可能可以讓川普有大麻煩的證據與秘辛–例如川普事先就知道維基解密要釋出民主黨的內部信件與在川普塔內川普高層與俄國方面間的惡名昭彰的會面。最後，一項民調顯示大眾信任科恩還勝過川普（50%比35%）

There has already been conflict between the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives and the White House over the former’s demand for information on why intelligence officials denied Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, the high security clearance he needed to carry out some diplomatic tasks – and why they were overruled by the president, a highly unusual (though legal) act. Kushner is suspected of using his public position to advance his private interests, namely raising funds for his family’s real-estate business. More recently, it was revealed that the president ordered that his daughter Ivanka also be given clearance, though this is not required for her job, whatever it is. These are among the wages of Trump running the White House as a family business and of his indifference toward governance norms.

由於眾院要求為何情報官員拒絕川普女婿庫許納說要完成某些外交工作而要求取得高度安全許可，以及極不尋常（雖然合法）的這些情報官員最後被總統打槍的資訊，民主黨掌控的眾院與白宮早就開始迭生齟齬。庫許納疑利用他的公眾身份遂行其私人利益，像是為他的家族房地產業聚斂資金。最近又被爆料總統連女兒伊凡卡都給了高度安全許可，不管她的職位是什麼這都不是必須的。這些都是川普作為家族事業拿下白宮與他大大不同於傳統行政倫理的作風所帶來的收穫。

So was the failure of Trump’s meeting in Hanoi with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. The collapse of the talks on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula was the result of Trump and his aides not preparing adequately – such agreements are often pre-cooked, or at least there are no great surprises – and of Trump’s assumption that his powerful personality and what he sees as a close relationship with the brutal Kim would carry the day.

川普在河內與北韓領導人金正恩的會面也是個大失敗。朝鮮半島非核化的談判失敗可說是川普與其人馬毫無作足功課導致–這樣的協議都要事先喬好，不然至少不應有大的意外。而在川普的幻想中，他的強勢作風與他以為他與殘忍的金正恩交情夠好到能把會談搞定。

The failure of the Hanoi summit was to some extent offset by relief that Trump hadn’t given too much away – though he had been on the path to doing so. True to form, Trump and his aides blamed the outcome on the Democrats for holding the Cohen hearing on the same day. And, true to form, they were lying: the hearing date had been set first.
河內高峰會的失敗在某種程度上還可以因為還好川普沒有讓步太多而釋懷–即使他已正朝那方向邁進。一如往常的川普與其人馬把這件事怪罪在民主黨把科恩的聽證會擺在同一天。同樣一如往常的，他們在說謊，因為聽證會的日期是更早先就訂好的。

註釋：
owing to: 因為
true to form: 一如往常的